The Ukraine war is entering a new phase

The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase. And trenches, heavy artillery and especially endurance play the main role. Whoever can deliver their troops best and fastest will win the bloody war of attrition, according to the Forward Defense analysis of a number of military specialists affiliated with the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, a U.S. think tank.

Ukrainian soldiers near Luhansk, DonbasANP / AFP / Anatolii Stepanov

Putin already gave a foretaste of this at the Battle of Mariupol. The city has been systematically destroyed by Russian artillery and rockets from a safe distance. Donbas look different from Mariupol or Kiev. There are large open spaces with almost no shelter in the form of, for example, multi-storey properties. In the Donbas, the artillerymen are at an advantage and the infantry at a disadvantage.

Both Russians and Ukrainians are now increasingly directing their attacks on the adversary’s supply lines and logistics centers in hopes of depriving the adversary of much-needed food, fuel and ammunition. In addition, the Russians clearly have an advantage given their overweight in firepower.

In the two months that the war has now lasted, Ukraine has already received 7,000 American Javelins (anti-tank missiles), which have successfully eliminated Russian tanks, armored vehicles and missile firing systems. And that’s a third of the total U.S. supply of spears. To rebuild this stock, the U.S. defense industry needs time, a lot of time. For example, it takes 32 months before a new Javelin rolls off the production line.

law on defense production

That’s why there are voices in Washington to get the Defense Production Act off the shelf. Under this Act, companies may be required to give priority to the execution of orders from the Ministry of Defense. In fact, this introduces a war economy. And not just Americans are playing with that idea. It is also emphasized in NATO circles that the establishment of a European war economy may well be necessary to help Kiev to victory. Citizens will also notice. Sometimes painful choices have to be made, which means that missing and empty shelves in the stores cannot be ruled out.

Evacuated

Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky said in his usual speech last night that more than 150 civilians had been evacuated from the besieged Azovstal factory in Mariupol yesterday. They arrived in the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhya. Earlier in the day, the UN reported that ‘more than a hundred’ civilians had been removed from the bunkers. More than 200 civilians are said to have been trapped under the complex. They then evacuated daylight again for the first time in two months, the UN reported.

“Finally, these people are safe again,” Zelensky said in his speech. In his speech, he thanked the Red Cross and the UN, who had helped make the evacuation possible. Four humanitarian corridors are planned today to evacuate civilians from, among others, the besieged city of Mariupol to Zaporizhzhya. This was reported by Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Vereshchuk on his Facebook page, who stressed that the corridors will only open if the security situation allows.

Evacuations from Mariupol should begin around 8 a.m. (Ukrainian time). Later, the evacuations will start from Tokmak, Vasylivka and Berdyansk.

cereal

Russia is said to have exported about 400,000 tons of grain from the territories it has occupied in Ukraine. Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Agriculture Vyotskyi reported this on state television. This is about a third of the grain stocks in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, DOnetsk and Lugansk regions, he said. If grain stocks fall further, according to the Deputy Minister of Agriculture, there is a risk of famine in the areas. There were no strategic reserves, he said.

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