The economic picture was less positive in November 2022

The economic picture (the short-term fluctuations in economic growth) according to Statistics Netherlands’ business cycle tracking was less positive in November 2022 than in October, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports. In the November Business Cycle Tracer, 8 of the 13 indicators exceeded their long-term trend.

The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool for determining the state and course of the Dutch economy. The Business Cycle Tracer collects virtually all important economic information published by Statistics Netherlands during the past month or quarter. The economic picture according to the Konjunktursporeren is a macroeconomic picture, and it does not apply equally to all households, companies or regions.

(Source CBS – 2022)

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted) average of the sub-questions between 2018-2022

Consumers less pessimistic, producers’ mood improves. Consumers were slightly less gloomy in November than in October, when their confidence hit an all-time low. Consumer confidence was well below the average for the past 20 years. Producer confidence improved in November and remained above the long-term average.

Household consumption, exports and investments are growing. The volume, adjusted for working days, of merchandise exports was 2.9% higher in September than in September 2021. Growth is slightly higher than in the previous two months. Several means of transport, machinery and equipment were exported in September. In September 2022, households spent 2.2% more, adjusted for price changes and shopping days, than in September 2021. As in previous months, they spent more on services but less on goods. In September 2022, the volume of investment in property, plant and equipment was 4.4% higher than the previous year. This is primarily due to higher investments in buildings and aircraft.

Manufacturing output grows by nearly 5% in September. Average daily output in Dutch industry was 4.6% higher in September than in September 2021. Growth has been fairly stable over the past four months, but less than in previous months.

The number of bankruptcies increased further in October. In October, 45 more companies (including sole proprietorships) were declared bankrupt than in September. The number of declared bankruptcies is low compared to the period before the outbreak of corona. The number of declared bankruptcies in the first 10 months of 2022 is more than 10% higher than in the same period in 2021.

The price increases on owner-occupied homes will also level out further in October. Existing owner-occupied homes were 7.8% more expensive in October than a year earlier. A month earlier, the increase was 9.4 per cent. It is the sixth month in a row that the price increase has leveled off. Compared to September, the price index for existing owner-occupied homes fell by 0.5% in October. The index also fell in the previous two months.

Fewer working hours and vacancies, but also fewer unemployed. Wage earners and the self-employed worked a total of approximately 3.6 billion hours in the third quarter of 2022. Adjusted for seasonal effects, this is 1.6% less than the previous quarter. At the end of September, there were 449 thousand unfilled positions, 17 thousand less than at the end of the second quarter. It is the first decline after the number of vacancies has increased for eight quarters in a row. In October 2022, 365 thousand people were unemployed, which is 3.7% of the working population. This means that unemployment was lower than in September (3.8%). On average over the past three months, the number of unemployed has still increased by 4 thousand per month. The turnover of temporary agencies and job placement increased by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the previous quarter.

GDP will shrink by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2022. According to the first calculation from Statistics Netherlands, gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter. This is because there has been less investment, especially in housing and infrastructure. According to the first calculation, GDP in the third quarter of this year was 3.1% higher than the previous year. In particular, the trade balance, household consumption and investment contributed to this growth.

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